eMarketer predicts that Facebook will pass 1bn active users worldwide in 2013 (as opposed to just users), thanks to strong growth in Asia-Pacific, Middle East, Africa and Latin America, each of which are set to see a 30% increase in users this year. The US, UK and Western Europe will also see growth, albeit at a much slower rate, although it is worth noting that eMarketer tracks figures for Instagram as part of Facebook.

“Despite some reports to the contrary, the collective body of research figures aggregated and analysed by eMarketer suggests that Facebook’s user base is not declining in mature markets such as the US, though some users may be spending less time on Facebook and more time on Instagram—which Facebook owns, but many research firms track separately,” eMarketer said.

“Meanwhile, older adults in mature markets continue to increase usage of Facebook, eMarketer estimates.”

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According to the company’s report, UK Teens: Pocketable PCs Empowering a Generation, about 93% of UK teens will use mobile phones in 2013, with smartphone penetration as a percentage of mobile users reaching 81%. By contrast, in the US smartphone penetration will only reach 50.9% of teen mobile phone users in 2013.

What’s more, smartphone penetration among teenage mobile phone users in the UK will reach 96% in 2017, positioning teens as the age group with the second-highest penetration rate out of all smartphone-toting mobile users throughout the forecast period.

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The company estimates that US mobile ad spending grew 178% in 2012 to $4.1bn, and that this will rise another 77.3% to $7.3bn in 2013.

eMarketer also breaks down its predictions by company, suggesting that Google will generate just under $4bn of mobile ad revenues in the US this year, ahead of Facebook ($965m), Pandora ($372m), Twitter ($266m) and Apple’s iAd network ($213m).

Meanwhile, in the long-term, eMarketer claims that by 2017 “US advertisers will devote $27.13 billion to mobile—just under 45% of all digital ad spending and 13.8% of total media ad spending that year.”

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It has published some new predictions for Twitter’s advertising revenues, claiming the service is on course to make $582.8m from ads in 2013, rising to $950m in 2014 and $1.3bn in 2015.

eMarketer also thinks that 53% of Twitter’s ad revenues in 2013 will come from mobile, rising to more than 60% in 2015.

“eMarketer believes Twitter has ultimately benefited from the increased focus on mobile by competitors like Google and Facebook, which have both expanded their own mobile ad offerings and worked to convince advertisers to shift dollars to mobile devices,” explains the company.

There is room for growth too: eMarketer suggests that 83% of Twitter’s advertising revenues will come from the US this year.

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The stats come from eMarketer, which estimates that mobile devices accounted for 11% of total US ecommerce sales in 2012, a number that is expected to rise to 15% in 2013.

eMarketer said it expects tablet shopping to produce the bulk of mcommerce sales over the next four years, with US consumers set to spend $24bn shopping on their tablets in 2013 and almost $48bn in 2015. Smartphone mcommerce sales, meanwhile, will grow at a slower rate.

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The UK heads that chart with an average of $36.35 of mobile ad spending per user, ahead of Norway ($35.71) and the US ($31.50), with Denmark ($28.64) and Japan ($26.23) rounding out the top five.

That said, mobile is still a small portion of overall digital ad spending, let alone total ad spending. For example, eMarketer estimates that advertisers spent $187.96 digitally per web user in the UK in 2012.

Even so, as more apps look to advertising for their main revenue stream in 2013, the figures will be seen as encouraging by publishers and developers.

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The company, which in September forecast 80% year-on-year growth in the US mobile ad market to $2.61bn, now predicts expects US mobile ad spending to reach $4bn this year, rising to $7.19bn in 2013 and nearly $21bn by 2016.

eMarketer said that it had changed its mind because of the success of the so-called “native” ad formats, which “represent a seamless experience across platforms for consumers”. This, in turn, means platform owners are able to earn revenue as consumers continue to increase time spent on mobile devices.

Facebook, which offered no mobile ad opportunities at all before 2012,  has had a significant role in this upturn, eMarketer said.  It now expects Facebook’s US mobile ad revenues to hit $339m in 2012.

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The company claims that ‘ad-supported’ services will account for 68.7% of those 2012 revenues, with subscription-based services providing 17.2% and download stores 14.1%.

However, the subscription forecasts only include services that are “exclusive to mobile devices” and exclude those that are “accessed via multiple platforms”. So not Spotify, Deezer, Rdio, Rhapsody, MOG… In fact, very few of the higher-profile streaming music services in 2012.

At a time when two thirds of iTunes Store purchases happen on iOS devices rather than computers – this according to Apple’s Eddy Cue at the recent iPhone 5 launch – and when people’s decision to pay $9.99 a month for a streaming service is based mostly (but not entirely) on mobile access, the idea of nailing down ‘mobile’ music revenues is increasingly tough.

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